Uncertainty in Climate Change

Climate change is typically defined as significant change in the measures that determine climate such as temperature, wind  or precipitation  over an extended period of time.  Factors that affect climate change include natural as well as human activity. One factor contributing to climate change is the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. While greenhouse gases help keep a moderating effect on the Earth’s temperature, the equilibrium of this system is changing with the rapid increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by human activity. These human-driven activities include burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and urban and agricultural development. As the temperature in the atmosphere changes, climate changes occur. Climate change affects regions, ecosystems in those regions and even economies. According to the EPA Climate Change website, greenhouse gases are being monitored using a greenhouse gas inventory  which measures emitted or absorbed gases over a period of time. The EPA in the US tracks these absorptions and emissions as do many other countries, the data which helps formulate a global inventory. The use of these inventories help predict future emissions and absorptions. Trends, strategies and government policies are then formulated with the data collected.

There are several forcings and feedbacks that have raised questions and uncertainty about global warming. According to the  NASA GCC website, there are two forcings that scientists are looking at and developing future models for. One of the questions is about solar irradiance. There is no empirical data before the 1970’s so making conclusions based upon only forty years of evidence is difficult. Aerosols also raise some questions regarding their effects on  global warming. Aerosols are made of a variety of particles in both composition and size. Some of the lighter, brighter particles reradiate light back into the atmosphere while darker particles absorb the radiation thereby increasing temperature. Tracking of aerosols in the atmosphere has only been quantified in the last decade and the measurements make no distinction between the types of particles. According to the Earth Observatory website, some models have predicted that aerosol cooling can counteract global warming but the distribution of the particles is  not evenly distributed over the Earth.

Several feedbacks also raise some uncertainty because of insufficient data or knowledge. Cloud physics is not completely understood and difficult to model. Clouds cool the earth by providing shade and by reflecting light. They can suppress precipitation but could also form higher and taller clouds initiating more storms. According to the Earth Observatory website, clouds are a very large uncertainty in climate modeling and predictions. Carbon cycles involve both natural and human-made processes. Natural processes remove carbon emissions with oceans being the main repository. Ocean circulations especially in the Atlantic could potentially cool Europe and advance ice sheets. Data again is only represented since the 1990s.

Other models include those for precipitation. Some models predict a decrease in precipitation in the southwest US while other models ( JPL for example) show an increase in precipitation. NASA has also studied permafrost melt. As permafrost melts, it runs off into the oceans, increasing the amount of fresh water. Fresh water is less dense than salt water and floats on top. An increase of fresh water near the poles can change ocean currents which also affect atmospheric temperatures. Accuracy and uncertainty in climate models occurs due to insufficient or lack of long-term data as well as regional differences. Also contributing to the uncertainties is the incomplete climate knowledge as well as the natural variability of many factors contributing to climate change. . It is also difficult to predict exactly how much pollution humans will add to the atmosphere in years to come. (windows2universe.org). As we continue to explore and develop more climate models, these unknown factors will become more apparent. The data collected over a longer period of time will allow for more accurate predictions and mathematical relationships to be established. While time will indicate the extent of global climate change, it will also allow scientists to more accurately measure and use the data collected to predict more realistic scenarios.

Reviewing the 2007 IPCC report and the six emission scenarios proposed in the report, I can see many similarities regarding the evidence occurring today and possible future effects. With the burning of fossil fuels, our current global temperature is rising. With the  burning of fossil fuels without continued regulation (as seen in scenario A1F1), we will continue to see the global temperature rise. Human population is still increasing exponentially and more people on the planet will bring about more demand for resources. Some of the scenarios presented in the 2007 report reflect slow, isolated economies which can only hamper the progress that is being made in our time (A2). We are seeing some of the predictions for the next 100 years already occurring. We are seeing more flooding in low lying coastal and delta regions. Extinction rates are increasing due to climate change and the inability of some species to adapt to the changes. Migration patterns, flowering patterns and natural geologic events are changing due to changing weather patterns. We are seeing more severe weather events which in the report has predicted to only worsen. While many uncertainties are difficult to measure and collect data from, we can see effects already.  I think the biggest unknown factor in determining how the future scenarios will play out is human society itself. Will governments realize that policy changes and regulations need to establish to help combat the effects resulting by the  rise in global temperature  or will some governments resist change due to economic or political pressures? Will enough nations be able to sustain the demands on their economies that will occur with decreased crop production, increased disease and malnutrition? The IPCC have included some of these factors in their scenarios. While informing the public is crucial in addressing the problems we are facing now, it is paramount that we educate our young people. They are ultimately going to inherit the problems we are causing now and they will be the ones to hopefully find the solutions. The more  we address the unknowns and immeasurable factors in our lifetime, the uncertain factors that need to be investigated and studied, the easier the task will be for the future generations to implement more permanent solutions.

Lots of Ideas and so little time

When we address climate forcings and global warmings, we often look at it from a global perspective. With primary factors such as increasing GHG and man’s continued heavy use of fossil fuels, it is coming to light that more research is showing how local or regional climate changes are occurring at a faster rate than anticipated. We have been seeing the effects of greenhouse gases in the Southwest. The warming has been gradual and subtle but has had a profound effect on the region. Increased temperatures have reduced snowpack in the Rockies and caused earlier springs. The decrease in appreciable snow melt affects the water levels of the Colorado River on which we depend for our water needs. Add to that the winter storm track has been gradually sliding northward and we have less winter storms to supplement the snow pack. While this region has seen its share of droughts over the past 1000 years, determined by tree ring studies, we are finding that this drought that began in the 1990s is lasting longer than any natural drought previously seen. This can perhaps be attributed to human-induced GHGs.
As far as resources I use for teaching GCC, having almost all AP Biology classes, I am under the same time constraints as other AP teachers. Many topics get a once-over with the basic terminology covered and some local feedbacks examined. My sources have been primarily video clips or time lapse photography of ice sheets or mountain glaciers retreating. I have used the NASA satellite imagery to support the information  and rely primarily on the Keeling curve and hockey stick chart to illustrate the rise in GHG and global surface temperatures. We have had several interesting Socratic seminars based on the topic. I wish I had more time to spend on the topic and need to examine a way of integrating it into more of my course curriculum.
After reading several resources provided in the course, I need to reexamine the strategies I use in the classroom to both impact the students more and save some precious class time. The Systems Theory approach to Science education is fascinating. Implementation would be a different story however. Our school district is making a move to require the core science classes of biology, geosciences, chemistry and physics in that order. Additional science classes such as environmental science or AP sciences will become electives. This change comes from a task force that met and recommended that the classic sciences be taught in better preparation for college level courses. This means less integration and more stand alone subjects. I am hoping I can get my department to work collaboratively so that we can integrate GCC and other key topics throughout their subjects. I would hate to see GCC relegated to a 4 week unit in Geoscience or a few weeks in Biology while they are studying ecology. It would be a major disservice to students.
I have gained an incredible number of resources by taking this GCC course. The simulations from the PhET site can easily be worked into an activity they can do at home. The NASA climate change site has some very useful information in a highly interactive format that will also catch the students’ imaginations and provide them with more information. With the amount of resources from this course alone, I can integrate more impacting information on the GCC topic. I am rethinking some of my techniques and realize that with the time constraints I have, I need to introduce this topic much earlier on in the year and somehow weave it as a thread throughout the entire school year. I am always telling my students we are the caretakers of the planet and try to get them to take more proactive steps in improving their carbon footprint. I am now thinking perhaps a weekly or biweekly presentation by the students ( lab group presentation) of current forcings and feedbacks both local and global to coincide with the current events happening at that same time. It wouldn’t take much time at all and  it beats having the teacher standing up there lecturing to them on the topic J J How do I bring in all this exciting information with the small amount of time I have to dedicate to the topics?That is something I really need to think about.

To Infinity and Beyond!

STEM and PBL work hand in hand with the task of bringing education to the level the 21^st century framework proposals. If you examine the components of a STEM lesson plan ( creativity, creative thinking, problem solving, communication and collaboration), they are also the major components of PBL especially critical thinking and collaboration. STEM is interdisciplinary covering not only classic science but global awareness, economics, technology and civil  literacy.  PBL can cover all areas or topics within a framework of skills useable in all areas of a student’s life as well. We are always facing problems in our lives. We can always use a good solid base for analyzing and solving them. I think teaching students these basic skills will help them gain confidence in other areas of their lives.

The 21^st Century framework stresses the teaching of life skills- skills not only necessary in school but in a student’s life beyond education. These life skills are important in all aspects of living in our world. Who could argue that having social and cultural skills in our global world and economy are not essential? Adaptability is the key to evolution, not only in the classic natural sense but also in the ever changing world in which our students will live in. One of the main focuses of 21^st century education is to prepare our students for life in the real world. We need to model the life skills ourselves as educators. How can students become interested in all that they can investigate when we don’t show the curiosity or enthusiasm ourselves? We need to bring relevance to our students, not just in their own lives but also how their world is an interesting and curious place to be.

The NASA organization began the enthusiasm of space exploration and ignited the spark of curiosity in so many, both child and adult alike. I love to show my students the movie October Sky. It epitomizes not only the space race but also the simple love for knowledge about space. NASA and the space race may have started over competition between the US and the Soviet Union to become the first nation to go into space but no one can deny the dreams of so many children to become an astronaut. Being so close to Halloween, I am sure that in the early 1960’s the most sold costume had to be an astronaut!  I remember so many times gathering in the theater or just in a big classroom, huddled around a black and white TV, shouting the count down along with the commentator. What an exciting time it was! Our students have grown up with the space shuttle as a common part of their lives. When I ask them when was the last time they saw a space shuttle launch on TV, often the answer is seldom or never but not because they weren't interested but because it has become so commonplace.In spite of placid acceptance, NASA continues to inspire the space and technology curiosity. After conquering the moon, the goal was Mars and now beyond our solar system. Asking my students if they think we will ever colonize either the moon or Mars, they look at me incredulous that I was even asking such a silly question. Of course we will. I always smile because the answer never changes. They don’t follow the politics or the downturn in our economy or even cutbacks in funding. They still see space as a frontier and with Hubble and other data collecting objects we have put into space, there is no doubt in their minds that we will find the answers we seek- time travel, inhabitable planets outside our solar system, even alien technology at Groom Lake J  

Whatever spin we want to put on it- call it STEM, PBL or 21^st century education, we need to continue to spark that interest and curiosity. We need to teach our students to become not only good US citizens but good global citizens. They will be faced with many problems in their lifetimes and having the skills to solve these problems will make their lives happier and healthier. I tell my students that science is not a subject, it is knowledge and technology is not the development of gadgets but the application of the knowledge we have gained and the start of all of this is to ask themselves “How” not just “What”. They are the ones who will continue the Hows as long as we can teach them the skills to be effective problem solvers. STEM and PBL are a good start.

Integrating 21st Century Technology in a 20th Century School

When I first read the introduction of Web 2.0 I was a little intimidated. I thought to myself “What have I been missing?” because I really wasn’t familiar with the term Web 2.0. Then I started reading the articles and realized that I knew about much of the content but didn’t assign a term that described it all. As I read the article on E-learning I realized how I was already beginning to incorporate these tools into my classroom and also how I had considered others in my pursuit for technology tools to support my instruction.

While I didn’t start a blog personally until this class, I am familiar with them and follow some online. I teach a class called Senior Research Project and one group of students is trying to create a social and academic media site for our high school where students can collaborate and post ideas and questions in a familiar environment. I support their efforts in creating this learning community. This group is working out the mechanics of the site but they are also thinking about the ethical or privacy issues with this site. It is interesting to listen to their discussions about how private or public to make this site. I am the first teacher that has become a member and it will be interesting to see if the students will communicate differently knowing a teacher is following their dialogs.

Since last year I have been toying with the idea of “flipping” my classroom in AP Biology and have been investigating podcast services to help me facilitate this flip. The idea of having students watch my podcasts at home in the evenings for their homework and then spend class time reinforcing content with activities and labs really intrigues me. I have consulted with my students as I explore this idea. As well as getting the students’ feedback, there are so many things to consider besides the basic use of technology. How long should the podcasts last? Will students actually watch them at home at night and what do I do if they don’t?  AP Biology is such a content intensive course to teach and I want to make sure that I am not sacrificing content at the expense of technology.  I do like the idea of student generated podcasts for projects or even reviews of units. I think my students would be more likely to watch a podcast of their peers and have it sustain their interest longer than if they were required to watch a broadcast of their instructor disseminating information.

All of the Web 2.0 tools are exciting and I have to be selective in the use of them in my classroom. My biggest obstacle is our district itself. We have a strong filtering system with any internet usage within the district. We are not able to access many websites even though it would be for instructional use. Our district does not allow access to social network sites at all so in school access to blogs, learning communities etc are blocked. As the DC of my science department, I am allowed to have unblocked internet access but there are still sub-layers of filtering that I have to deal with. Even with an unfiltered computer, I still have to abide with the usage contract of the district. I think this will be a stumbling block for many school districts as we move even further into technological tools to use in education. We can spend millions of dollars for devices such as iPads but we are stymied by an archaic idea that students should have limited access to the internet where a wealth of information and interesting educational tools are located.

My First Blog

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